In the 1994 movie Airheads, Brendan Fraser, Steve Buscemi, and Adam Sandler play members of a rock band with big dreams. The story of the film is that the three decide to hijack a radio station in an effort to get their demo played on the air.
The idea was that fame and riches would follow, presumably. To be frank, I haven’t seen the film (sorry not sorry, my movie backlog is packed and Airheads is not above Air). I’m just aware of the general premise. Regardless, it sets up the point I’m about to get to: That movie synopsis reads as very ’90s and alien in relation to the music industry in 2024. Things are different now, both in terms of music itself and the ecosystem that surrounds it.
In times of change, it’s important to self-reflect and reconsider the things we value, what’s working and what isn’t. As I’ve aged, I’ve come to realize that one serving of vegetables per week isn’t part of a successful plan to remain alive, for example. I’ve also reached this question: Is landing a No. 1 single on the Billboard Hot 100 chart today going the way of getting a demo on the radio in 1994?
My answer, to an extent, is yes: Getting a No. 1 single doesn’t matter like it used to. That’s a big-sounding claim and I don’t want to present it without nuance, so let’s look at some information.
In 2023, 19 songs were No. 1 on the Hot 100. In 2013, that number was only 12. The figures are shaping up similarly for this year, too: We already have 15 chart-toppers so far in 2024 with so much time left, versus just 10 in 2014.
A simple lesson in supply and demand: The more there is of something, the less valuable it is. Please indulge me briefly as we go back to 1953, when Edmund Hillary and Tenzing Norgay became the first two people to summit Mount Everest. It was a big deal! Since then, over 6,000 other people have done it, too. Climbing Everest is still a noteworthy challenge, especially when you consider the 200 or so people who didn’t make it and whose bodies are still frozen on the mountain right now. But, the gravity of the feat is definitely diminished. That chilling detour was to illustrate that as the distinction of having a No. 1 single becomes less rare, it becomes less impressive.
There are some external factors that impact the perceived value of a Hot 100 No. 1, too, that have nothing to do with the Billboard charts themselves (or Mount Everest).
For one, more ways of measuring a song’s success are available to us now, and these metrics can have different significance to different audiences. For example, perhaps fans who live their musical lives on Spotify care less about chart placement and more about streaming numbers, which have increasingly come to indicate the music many people most spend their time with.
Well, according to data from Luminate (as shared by Billboard), the most-streamed song in the US of the first half of 2024 was Benson Boone’s “Beautiful Things,” with 448.7 million plays. Yet, despite being early 2024’s most popular song by a widely valued and impactful metric, “Beautiful Things” never wore the Hot 100 crown. It spent many weeks in the top 10 and even some time at No. 2, but never in the captain’s seat.
More anecdotally speaking, Sabrina Carpenter’s “Espresso” is a contender for the 2024 song of the summer. But, it never hit No. 1, despite consistently out-performing, for example, Taylor Swift and Post Malone’s No. 1 hit “Fortnight” on the weekly US Spotify charts after the collaboration’s first week (half-fortnight, if you will). It could be the year’s biggest song so far, but it’s not a No. 1 single in the US.
Then there’s TikTok. That’s a world that’s beyond me (aside from seeing viral TikToks on Instagram three weeks after they’ve already blown up), but I won’t diminish the impact it has on music culture and the value of musical success on the platform. Songs like Tinashe’s “Nasty,” Artemas’ “I Like The Way You Kiss Me,” and, somehow, Pharrell’s Despicable Me 4 song “Double Life” have all gotten major attention on one of the internet’s most-trafficked spaces. None of them have hit even the top 10 on the Hot 100.
(My June claim that “Double Life” “probably won’t be a world-changing single like ‘Happy’” is starting to age like milk that’s been sneezed in and left outside.)
To music fans who are mostly on TikTok and aren’t paying attention to the big Spotify favorites (a valid type of person that I’m guessing isn’t uncommon among the app’s users), those are the biggest songs, not some Hot 100 hit they stopped listening a hundred trends ago.
To be clear, this isn’t Billboard‘s fault. They haven’t passively rotted away as the world blooms around them. They regularly tweak the Hot 100 rules as they deem necessary, like they did with major changes in 2013 and 2018. But, it’s seemingly just impossible to keep up, to perfectly quantify and represent how consumers interact with the always-changing music industry.
I don’t mean to diminish the value of a No. 1 single. It’s still a tremendous achievement: Of the thousands and thousands of songs that have been released this year, only 15 of them have gone No. 1. 15! My point is more so that with how diverse and splintered the infrastructure around music consumption has become, the Hot 100 is no longer the singular, be-all-end-all authority on what the biggest songs are. It’s not the metric anymore.
Like getting a demo on the radio, it doesn’t mean what it used to.
