This bit of polling data might not sit well with the former President Donald Trump. A new poll from Harvard Kennedy School’s Institute of Politics shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by 31 points among likely voters aged 18 to 29. The poll, released on Tuesday, shows Harris with 61% of the vote compared to Trump’s 30%, in a match-up that includes third-party candidates. Among registered voters alone, her lead narrows slightly to 23 points.
As you can imagine, this poll marks a notable improvement for Democrats since the spring, when a similar Harvard poll found President Joe Biden leading Trump by just 13 points among likely voters under 30, and only 7 points among registered voters. At the time, many young, left-leaning Americans expressed dissatisfaction with their options for the 2024 election.
Here’s what John Della Volpe, the polling director at the Institute of Politics, said, “This poll reveals a significant shift in the overall vibe and preferences of young Americans as the campaign heads into the final stretch. Gen Z and young millennials’ heightened enthusiasm signals a potentially decisive role for the youth vote in 2024.”
With the upcoming presidential contest, being such a tight race, this surge in support from younger voters is promising for Harris, who is relying heavily on their turnout. Voters under 30 were pivotal in several key states in the 2020 election, where they overwhelmingly supported Biden by a 24-point margin.
When it comes to the nitty-gritty data behind the
poll, they surveyed over 2,000 individuals under the age of 30 between September 4 and September 16, shows a clear boost in youth engagement following Harris taking the lead on the Democratic ticket. Political analysts have pointed to increases in voter registration in the week after Biden withdrew, with the largest spikes seen among young Americans, particularly women and women of color.
Listen, nobody really knows how these newly registered voters will ultimately cast their ballots, these groups typically lean Democratic. In the latest Harvard youth poll, young female voters showed a strong preference for Harris, with a 47-point margin over Trump—up from the 22-point lead Biden held in the spring.
in some surprising information, statistically Harris also increased among young men, but less dramatically. While Biden only had a 5-point lead among young men in the spring, Harris now leads Trump by 17 points in this demographic.
When it comes to voter turnout, which does not bode well for Republicans, more young Democrats say they are certain they will vote in the upcoming election, with the percentage rising from 66% in the spring to 74% in this recent poll. On the other hand, the number of young Republicans committed to voting has declined slightly, dropping from 64% in the spring to 60% now.
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